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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."